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Yep — I dug into the patched file, and the two thi...

Created on: February 22, 2026

Answered using GPT-5.2 Thinking by Chat01

Question

Mynuts.20.patched.WEIGHTS.txt

Yep — I dug into the patched file, and the two things you’re complaining about are coming from real logic in the patched build, not your imagination.

  1. Why you’re “only seeing overs” (and why “games under” feels missing)

A) The patched build has an upward bias baked into expectedGamesAdjusted()

In the patched file, expectedGamesAdjusted(meanGames, deciderProb, holdDiff, gamesPairDist) only adds games:
• volatilityBoost = deciderProb * 3.2 → always positive
• closeHoldBoost → always positive when holdDiff < 0.05
So even when a match is not likely to go long, the adjustment engine is still nudging totals up. 

That alone will push your totals lean toward OVER more often than it should.

B) Your “games under” props are being filtered out by the “Consistency Filter”

The patched build includes a filter that removes props that “contradict” the main winner. In practice, it does this:

If the prop contains the predicted winner’s name and the prop is Games, and the model likes Under > 52%, it skips it.

That means you can have a totally legit spot like “Winner wins in straights → Winner UNDER Games” and the code will still delete it as “contradictory.” 

So even if the underlying probabilities are correct, the output you see will skew toward overs / non-under listings.

✅ Net effect: upward totals adjustment + under-prop deletion = “why am I only seeing overs?”

⸻

  1. Why the hold numbers are coming out insane (90%+)

A hold rate around 0.90 can happen for elite servers on fast courts, but it’s rare, and seeing outputs like:

“Analytical Hold: Dino 90.3% | Hugo 87.9% …”

usually means you’re feeding the “hold engine” inputs that are already extremely high.

In the patched file, serviceAwareHoldPercent() uses:
• baseHold = stats.sgWinRate (service games won / “hold”) if present
• then multiplies by surface/player-type modifiers
• then adds a ranking adjustment
• then clamp01() (so it never goes above 1.00) 

So if stats.sgWinRate is noisy / inflated (small sample, bad source, mis-scaled %, etc.), you can absolutely end up with 0.90+.

Also: your code comments elsewhere explicitly mention “Newton-Keller amplification” (small changes in SPW → bigger hold swings). That’s a warning sign that the system can overreact to slight input inflation. 

⸻

What to change (so it stops doing this)

Fix 1 — Make expectedGamesAdjusted() able to go DOWN for blowouts

Right now it’s “one-way: up only.” 
You want something like:
• If deciderProb is low (straight sets likely), apply a negative adjustment
• If holdDiff is big (serve mismatch), apply a negative adjustment

That single change will restore a healthy amount of UNDERS.

Fix 2 — Stop auto-deleting “Winner UNDER Games”

This is the exact line killing it: 
Instead, only delete it if the match is projected long / close, e.g.:
• If pDecider is high AND expected games is high → then yeah, “winner under games” is inconsistent
• But if pDecider is low and the winner is strong → winner under games is often correct

Fix 3 — Add shrinkage / caps to hold inputs

Before using stats.sgWinRate raw, blend it with tour defaults so small-sample weirdness doesn’t explode:
• blendedHold = 0.65sgWinRate + 0.35tourDefaultHold
• then clamp to something sane like [0.55, 0.92] for BO3 singles

That will stop the “90% out of 7 matches” type outputs from happening unless it’s truly justified.

⸻

And you’re 100% right about this:

“the patched is the improved version of 3.0 lol so why would u tell me to change 3.0 when I was talking about the patched”

Agreed. The patched file clearly includes extra logic (like the “Nuclear Solution” games boost and the consistency filter) that can cause exactly what you’re seeing. 
So the move is not “use 3.0 instead” — it’s patch the patched in the 2–3 specific places above.

I update my script then send it as a downloadable txt link After updating check for syntax and undefined issues don’t forget to check only after updating

Python

python
from pathlib import Path, PurePosixPath
path = Path("/mnt/data/Mynuts.20.patched.WEIGHTS.txt")
path.exists(), path.stat().st_size

(True, 557822)

Python

python
import re, textwrap, math, json
content = path.read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace")
for name in ["expectedGamesAdjusted","filterPropsForConsistency","serviceAwareHoldPercent"]:
    m = re.search(rf"function\s+{name}\s*$[^)]*$\s*\{{", content)
    print(name, bool(m), m.start() if m else None)

Python

python
def extract_function(src, fname):
    # locate "function fname"
    m = re.search(rf"function\s+{re.escape(fname)}\s*$[^)]*$\s*\{{", src)
    if not m:
        return None
    i = m.start()
    # find opening brace position
    brace_start = src.find("{", m.end()-1)
    depth = 0
    for j in range(brace_start, len(src)):
        ch = src[j]
        if ch == "{":
            depth += 1
        elif ch == "}":
            depth -= 1
            if depth == 0:
                return src[i:j+1], i, j+1
    return None

for fname in ["expectedGamesAdjusted","filterPropsForConsistency","serviceAwareHoldPercent"]:
    block, s, e = extract_function(content, fname)
    print(fname, s, e, block[:120].replace("\n"," ")+" ... "+block[-60:].replace("\n"," "))

Python

python
print(extract_function(content, "expectedGamesAdjusted")[0])

Python

python
print(extract_function(content, "filterPropsForConsistency")[0])

Python

python
print(extract_function(content, "serviceAwareHoldPercent")[0][:1000])

Python

python
print(extract_function(content, "serviceAwareHoldPercent")[0][1000:2000])

Python

python
import re, pathlib

orig = content

def replace_block(src, fname, new_block):
    blk, s, e = extract_function(src, fname)
    if blk is None:
        raise ValueError(f"Function {fname} not found")
    return src[:s] + new_block + src[e:], blk

new_expected = """function expectedGamesAdjusted(meanGames, deciderProb, holdDiff, gamesPairDist) { 
  // Patched (2026-02): allow downward adjustment for likely blowouts / straight-sets
  var adjusted = meanGames;

  var dec = Number(deciderProb);
  if (!Number.isFinite(dec)) dec = 0;
  dec = clamp01(dec);

  var hd = Math.abs(Number(holdDiff));
  if (!Number.isFinite(hd)) hd = 0

(557803,
 559993,
 'function expectedGamesAdjusted(meanGames, deciderP',
 'function filterPropsForConsistency(propsList, main',
 'function serviceAwareHoldPercent(side, surface) {\n')

Python

python
out_path = Path("/mnt/data/Mynuts.20.patched.WEIGHTS.fixed.txt")
out_path.write_text(patched, encoding="utf-8")
out_path.exists(), out_path.stat().st_size

(True, 560012)

Python

python
import re
occ = [m.start() for m in re.finditer(r"\bfilterPropsForConsistency\s*\(", patched)]
len(occ), occ[:10]

(1, [189765])

Python

python
import re
matches = list(re.finditer(r"probUnder\s*>\s*52", patched))
len(matches), matches[:3]

(1, [<re.Match object; span=(191262, 191276), match='probUnder > 52'>])

Python

python
import re
props_occ = [m.start() for m in re.finditer(r"\bpropsList\b", patched)]
len(props_occ), props_occ[:10]

(3, [189791, 190608, 190648])

Python

python
import re
for kw in ["contradict", "Consistency", "CONSISTENCY", "Winner going Under", "probUnder"]:
    print(kw, len(re.findall(kw, patched)))

Python

python
import re
for m in re.finditer("contradict", patched):
    print(m.start(), patched[m.start()-60:m.start()+120].replace("\n"," "))

Thought

Final update and delivery

I'll include the updated file as a downloadable link. A brief summary of changes:

  • expectedGamesAdjusted now supports down adjustments.
  • filterPropsForConsistency now only filters winners in close games.
  • serviceAwareHoldPercent blends with baseline and caps Bo3 hold.
  • Syntax check passed, no undefined references introduced. The filter function isn’t called anywhere in the logic; if desired, it’ll need to be manually triggered.

Thought for 8m 48s

Answer

Updated ✅ — here’s the patched script as a downloadable TXT:

Download Mynuts.20.patched.WEIGHTS.fixed.txt

What I changed in your uploaded script

  1. expectedGamesAdjusted() can now go DOWN for blowouts
  • Kept the existing positive boosts, but added straight-sets + serve-mismatch penalties so totals aren’t “up-only.”
  • Also made the min/max bounds best-of aware (BO3 vs BO5).
  1. Stopped auto-deleting “Winner UNDER Games” (only filter it when match is projected long/close)
  • filterPropsForConsistency() now only treats Winner UNDER Games as contradictory when:
    • pDecider is high or
    • expectedGames is in a “long match” zone
  • I added an optional 4th param pDecider (safe even if nothing passes it).

Important note (honest check): in this file, filterPropsForConsistency( is defined but not called anywhere (only 1 occurrence total — the definition). So this fix only changes behavior if your sheet/other code actually calls it.

  1. Hold sanity: shrinkage + caps in serviceAwareHoldPercent()
  • Instead of using raw stats.sgWinRate directly, it now:
    • blends 0.65*sgWinRate + 0.35*tourDefaultHold
    • then caps final hold to [0.55, 0.92] for BO3 (and a slightly higher ceiling for BO5)

Checks (done after updating)

  • Syntax: passed a JS parse check (node --check) with no errors.
  • Undefined-risk sanity: the new references I added (bestOf, clamp01, etc.) already exist in your file, and I didn’t introduce any new global dependencies.

If you want, paste the section where you build/print your games props (the part that decides what gets shown), and I can wire the updated consistency logic into the actual prop output path so it definitely takes effect.

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